Ameresco guides Q4 EPS above consensus; revenue range spans estimate

By Amara Osei

NYSE-listed Ameresco set fourth-quarter 2026 earnings-per-share guidance of $0.95 to $1.05 on Tuesday, against a Wall Street consensus estimate of $0.77. The range points above the benchmark.

CEO George P. Sakellaris bought 5,000 shares on August 24, a purchase he disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The guidance reset places the earnings forecast above consensus while leaving revenue on either side of its estimate.

What does the updated guidance mean?

Ameresco issued revenue guidance of $625.0 million to $650.0 million, a range bracketing the $639.2 million consensus. Full-year 2026 EPS guidance stands at $1.85 to $1.95. Shares gained 4.0% and opened at $22.48 on Tuesday.

The EPS range sits entirely above consensus. The revenue range allows for a result on either side of the estimate. That is the narrower promise.

Ameresco has made a clearer earnings promise than revenue promise.

How did the latest quarter perform?

On Monday, November 9, Ameresco reported third-quarter 2026 EPS of $0.88, beating the $0.57 consensus by $0.31. Revenue reached $580.32 million, above the $572.89 million analyst expectation, and grew 10.3% from a year earlier. EPS was $0.35 in the same quarter of 2025.

Return on equity was 2.82%, and the net margin was 1.40%. The EPS and sales beats could support investor confidence, but both margin measures remained thin. Sell-side analysts expect $1.22 of EPS for the current year, below the company's $1.85 to $1.95 full-year guidance. That gap is wide.

The quarter beat expectations, while profitability stayed modest.

What do the balance sheet and valuation show?

• Debt-to-equity ratio: 1.33; quick ratio: 1.66; current ratio: 1.67.
• Market capitalization: $1.19 billion; price-to-earnings ratio: 43.23; PEG ratio: 1.58; beta: 2.50.
• 50-day moving average: $21.46; 200-day moving average: $26.20.
• 52-week low: $18.09; 52-week high: $37.14.

At Tuesday's $22.48 opening, the shares sat above their $21.46 50-day moving average and below their $26.20 200-day average. They also traded well below the $37.14 52-week high, against a low of $18.09.

Liquidity measures stood above 1, and a 2.50 beta marked a stock given to substantial movement.

Liquidity covers short-term obligations, while the 2.50 beta points to substantial price swings.

How have analysts changed their views?

• Tuesday, August 4: Canaccord Genuity Group raised its price objective from $59.00 to $62.00 and assigned a buy rating.
• Tuesday, August 18: Robert W. Baird cut its price objective from $36.00 to $32.00 and downgraded the shares from outperform to neutral.
• Thursday, August 27: Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target from $44.00 to $36.00 and set an overweight rating.
• Thursday, September 3: Jefferies Financial Group upgraded the shares to a “strong-buy” rating.
• Sunday, September 27: Wall Street Zen moved the rating from sell to hold.

One analyst rates the shares Strong Buy, six rate them Buy, five Hold and two Sell. MarketBeat reports an average rating of “Hold” and an average $41.00 target.

The analyst views remain split, and the average stance is Hold.

Who has been buying shares?

On August 24, Sakellaris bought 5,000 shares at an average $20.91, a $104,550.00 transaction. Afterward, he owned 1,000,597 shares valued at $20,922,483.27, a 0.50% increase in his holding.

Director Joseph W. Sutton bought 9,700 shares the same day at an average $20.87, for $202,439.00. His direct ownership then stood at 80,246 shares, valued at about $1,674,734.02, and his position grew 13.75%.

Over the last 90 days, insiders purchased 29,325 shares worth $628,664. Corporate insiders own 45.10% of the stock.

Insider buying has been tangible, and insiders hold nearly half the company.

What can the backlog and pipeline deliver?

Ameresco reported a record $7.15 billion backlog, a substantial base of work that could support future revenue growth. The company also expects 12 to 18 months to convert five data-center projects into contracted backlog.

Those projects offer potential growth, but they remain outside contracted work. The stated conversion window means they may not contribute to secured revenue immediately.

The backlog supports the current base; the data-center pipeline remains conditional.

What does Ameresco do?

Ameresco develops, designs, builds and operates clean-energy and energy-efficiency projects for public- and private-sector customers. Its clients include federal, state and local government agencies, schools, healthcare organizations, utilities, and commercial and industrial businesses.

Services include building and infrastructure energy-performance work, renewable-energy development, distributed energy systems, microgrids, energy storage, and operations and maintenance. Contracted work and project execution will determine how much of the guidance becomes revenue.

The company sells energy upgrades, renewable capacity and long-running services, with revenue tied to project progress.