Cimpress falls to $54.29 low as analyst targets shrink

Cimpress shares reached a new 52-week low of $54.29 on Monday, against a previous close of $56.38, after Barrington Research cut its price target (an analyst valuation benchmark) from $121 to $102. The stock last traded at $55.2250 on volume of 18,644 shares; a separate market-data section put the decline at 3.2%.

Barrington Research nevertheless retained an “outperform” rating. Its reduced $102 target still stands above the $55.2250 last trade, leaving the research firm cautious rather than negative.

What changed in the analyst ratings?

• Barrington Research: price target reduced to $102 from $121; rating remains “outperform.”
• Weiss Ratings: “hold (c+)” downgraded to “hold (c)” on Monday, November 2.
• Zacks Research: “strong-buy” reduced to “hold” on Thursday, August 13.
• Wall Street Zen: “buy” reduced to “hold” on Saturday, August 15.
• Truist Financial: price target reduced to $90 from $108; “buy” rating set on Monday, November 2.

MarketBeat.com’s tally records two Buy ratings and two Hold ratings. It also reports a “Moderate Buy” average and a $96 consensus price target, above the $55.2250 last trade but below Barrington’s $121 prior target. The headline label is more confident than the underlying mix.

What did the October quarter show?

Cimpress reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday, October 28, with earnings per share (EPS) of negative $0.11 against an analyst consensus estimate (a benchmark forecast) of $0.80, a $0.91 shortfall.

Revenue reached $934.05 million, below the $934.18 million estimate. Net margin (profit as a share of revenue) was 2.25%, while return on equity (return generated on shareholders’ equity) was negative 17.64%.

The arithmetic offers little comfort. Equities research analysts forecast $4.38 in EPS for the current fiscal year, requiring a much stronger full-year result than the latest quarter delivered.

What do the market metrics imply?

The $1.34 billion market capitalization (total market value of common equity) sits alongside a price-to-earnings ratio (market price divided by earnings per share) of 16.43 and a beta (relative volatility measure) of 1.90.

The 50-day moving average (average price over the stated number of trading sessions) is $77.31, and its 200-day version is $83.81. Both averages exceed the $55.2250 last trade, a gap consistent with the reported downward move. The forward test is whether forecast $4.38 of annual EPS can support the $96 consensus target.

What did insiders do with their shares?

CEO Robert Keane sold 16,000 shares on Friday, September 11, at an average price of $84.88, for a total value of $1,358,080. An SEC filing disclosed the transaction.

After the sale, he owned 764,000 shares valued at $64,848,320. The transaction reduced his ownership by 2.05%.

In total, insiders sold 34,500 shares worth $3,001,585 over the previous 90 days. Corporate insiders own 10.20% of Cimpress.

Which institutions changed positions?

Institutional investors (funds and asset managers) and hedge funds have recently modified their Cimpress holdings. Four disclosed new positions ranged from $30,000 to about $45,000, while institutions own 77.64% of the company.

• KBC Group NV: new first-quarter position valued at $30,000.
• Financial Management Professionals Inc.: new second-quarter position valued at about $33,000.
• USA Financial Formulas: new third-quarter position valued at about $39,000.
• Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio: new second-quarter position valued at about $45,000.
• EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC: first-quarter stake increased 27.7%; holding reached 817 shares worth $60,000 after adding 177 shares.

What does Cimpress sell?

Founded in 1995 by Robert Keane as Vistaprint, Cimpress changed its corporate name in 2014 as it expanded beyond its original online printing business. Its company profile describes a global provider of mass-customization (personalized offerings produced at scale) products and services.

Its technology, manufacturing and marketing platforms help small businesses, consumers and organizations create and order personalized physical and digital products. The portfolio covers custom marketing materials, signage, apparel, promotional products, packaging, gifts, invitations, photo products, websites and design services.

Specialized businesses include VistaPrint, 99designs by Vista, VistaCreate, National Pen and other regional or category-focused operations serving North America, Europe, Asia and other international markets. The operating portfolio is broad, if not exactly uniform, and the near-term test is whether forecast annual EPS of $4.38 can materialize after a $0.91 quarterly miss.