Excelerate lifts Q3 EBITDA to $133M, targets 2027 growth

By Tom Whitfield

Excelerate Energy reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $133 million, a company record and $13 million above the second quarter, while net income reached $60 million, up $10 million sequentially.

What drove the record quarter?

CFO Dana Armstrong said results benefited from the start of a new charter in Jordan and higher direct margins from LNG, gas and power across the portfolio. Neither contribution was quantified.

CEO Steven Kobos said Excelerate's "earnings are predominantly supported by long-term take-or-pay contracts." That structure supports revenue visibility, but the company did not disclose contract-level concentration or near-term expiry exposure.

Record earnings rested on contracted revenue and better margins, not a quantified jump from any single new asset.

What does the Bahamas hub change?

Excelerate announced an 11-year LNG supply agreement with AxDo Bahamas Limited, a joint venture between energy trader Axpo and Bahamas-based Domicisle LNG. AxDo will serve as the anchor customer for a planned offshore storage and distribution terminal near Grand Bahama.

• Deliveries are due to begin in the first quarter of 2027 through the existing Jamaica platform. Chief Commercial Officer Oliver Simpson said the initial plan is to move volumes from Jamaica to the Bahamas rather than use ISO containers.
• Annual deliveries will ramp to 16 trillion British thermal units of LNG. The contracted volume represents less than half of the planned asset's capacity, leaving scope for additional sales to AxDo and other regional customers.
• The LNG will support marine bunkering, power generation and other downstream uses. Excelerate plans to deploy a dedicated floating storage unit near Grand Bahama in the second half of 2028.
• The unit will cost $85 million to $95 million, including the LNG carrier and conversion. Management cautioned that final conversion costs remain subject to engineering and project scope.
• Excelerate expects the AxDo agreement to contribute approximately $6 million of EBITDA in 2027. After the storage unit enters service, the company projects an average annual EBITDA run rate of approximately $15 million over the contract's remaining 10 years, based on current contracted volumes.

The $15 million estimate depends on present volumes, while sales beyond AxDo require additional demand and commitments.

The Bahamas project adds a 2027 earnings contribution, but most of its projected value waits for the 2028 unit and customers beyond the anchor agreement.

Can Iraq and Colombia start on schedule?

Excelerate continues to target a first-quarter 2027 startup for its Colombia terminal and a second-quarter 2027 startup in Iraq. Kobos said the company will use an FSRU already in the Arabian Gulf for Iraq and other portfolio assets outside the Gulf for Colombia. Neither startup requires a vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

The company has not identified the individual vessels because customer arrangements remain unfinished. Armstrong said the temporary deployment plans should preserve previously communicated expectations: approximately $100 million of annual EBITDA at minimum contracted volumes for Iraq and a 35% uplift for Colombia.

In Iraq, jetty-reinforcement and fixed-terminal materials are arriving and construction workers are on site. COO David Liner targets mechanical completion in April 2027, followed by commissioning. Kobos expects Excelerate to finalize an LNG supply agreement with an upstream supplier in the first quarter of 2027.

The five-year Iraq agreement provides for minimum contracted offtake of 250 million standard cubic feet per day, with the ability to increase that volume to 500 million.

The schedules still depend on construction, vessel assignments, customer contracts, an upstream supply agreement and a dollar figure for Colombia that management has not provided.

What do the vessel investments add?

More than $400 million of contracted revenue entered the backlog in August when Excelerate extended its FSRU Sequoia contract with Petrobras by five years through 2038. The company plans to install a reliquefaction unit during Sequoia's scheduled 2028 dry dock to reduce LNG boil-off losses and improve efficiency.

Excelerate also awarded Seatrium a contract to convert the LNG carrier Methane Patricia Camila into an FSRU. The company estimates total investment at approximately $260 million, including the vessel, and expects commercial deployment in 2028.

The extensions add backlog, but neither the reliquefaction savings nor a more detailed deployment schedule was quantified.

Longer contracts improve visibility, while both floating-unit programs leave the 2028 delivery and conversion milestones exposed to execution risk.

What does the financial base show?

Excelerate narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $495 million-$515 million. It lowered maintenance capital expenditure guidance to $65 million-$75 million because of deferred maintenance and raised committed growth capital expenditure guidance to $400 million-$410 million because of the timing of conversion-project spending.

Armstrong said "total capital expenditure remains generally in line with prior guidance." The revision therefore changes spending timing more than management's stated overall spending path.

At September 30, the company had approximately $1.2 billion of total debt, including finance leases, and $357 million in cash. Its $500 million revolving credit facility remained fully available.

The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, payable December 3 to shareholders of record on November 18. Armstrong said identified growth projects could add $250 million-$300 million in EBITDA by 2029, although management is still considering whether to provide multiyear guidance.

Excelerate is a U.S.-based energy infrastructure company providing LNG delivery and regasification services. Its floating storage and regasification units receive, store and convert LNG back into natural gas for onshore or offshore pipelines, while the company also offers vessel ownership, terminal services, LNG supply, logistics and project development.

The near-term earnings base is established; the larger 2027-2029 case still rests on contracts and infrastructure milestones that management has not yet completed.