Grupo Cibest Lifts 2026 Loan Outlook on Commercial Rebound

Grupo Cibest (NYSE:CIB) reported third-quarter net income of COP 2 trillion and raised its 2026 loan growth forecast to 8% to 9%, from 7% to 8% previously, after a rebound in commercial lending. Higher provisions and funding costs weighed on margins, but not enough to disturb the trajectory. Quarterly return on equity came in at 21.7%.

Net income for the first nine months rose 10.5% from a year earlier, more than offsetting the absence of earnings from divested Panamanian bank Banistmo. Chief Executive Officer Juan Carlos Mora said credit origination strengthened as business confidence improved, despite a difficult political and economic environment in Colombia and an earthquake in the country's southwest.

What drove the revision?

The group's gross loan portfolio reached COP 274 trillion, up 4.3% from the second quarter and 9.7% year over year. Excluding foreign exchange effects, annual growth would have been 13.5%, Chief Strategy and Financial Officer Mauricio Botero Wolff said. The loan growth revision reflects stronger demand for commercial loans in Colombia; all other 2026 guidance was unchanged.

• Commercial loans: up 5.5% during the quarter.
• Consumer loans: up 2%.
• Mortgages: up 2.1%.

Mora said commercial demand remained strong into the fourth quarter. He was less optimistic about consumer lending, citing high interest rates and the fiscal situation.

Deposits totaled COP 275 trillion, up 1.5% sequentially and 8.6% year over year. The cost of deposits edged up to 4.5%, reflecting higher Colombian interest rates and a greater share of institutional savings accounts and time deposits. Net interest income fell 4.9% from the preceding quarter to COP 5.7 trillion, and net interest margin (the spread between lending and funding income) stood at 7.4%.

Botero Wolff attributed the decline to a normalization of treasury income after a strong second quarter, higher funding needs associated with Nequi's separation, and growth in lower-spread commercial loans. Net fee income rose 15.5% from a year earlier to COP 1.4 trillion; Botero Wolff expects net fee growth of around 12% in 2027.

How much did provisions rise?

Net provision charges climbed 17% from the second quarter to COP 1.2 trillion, reflecting higher charges in a specific Bancolombia client segment and in consumer lending as originations increased. The quarterly cost of risk was 1.8%, bringing the nine-month figure to 1.7%.

Botero Wolff said asset quality in areas affected by the earthquake remained in line with the broader local loan book, although some deterioration could emerge as collections normalize. The company is building provisions accordingly and does not expect the earthquake to affect its cost-of-risk guidance for 2026 or 2027.

For 2027, the group projected:

• Loan growth of 9% to 10%.
• Net interest margin of 7.5% to 7.7%.
• Cost of risk of 1.9% to 2.1%.
• Efficiency ratio (costs relative to income) of 46% to 47%.

Mora said the loan forecast assumes Colombia's fiscal deficit narrows gradually and in an orderly way.

What is the profit outlook?

Botero Wolff said the company expects 2026 net income of around COP 8.5 trillion, followed by growth of 8% to 10% in 2027, or approximately COP 9.2 trillion to COP 9.3 trillion. That would support a return on equity of about 21.5% to 22% next year. Over the longer term, the group is targeting a return of around 20% as inflation and interest rates stabilize.

What does Nequi's separation change?

On Sept. 1, Nequi separated from Bancolombia and became an independent commercial financing company wholly owned by Grupo Cibest. The digital financial platform had more than 29 million users, including 24 million active customers and 18 million monetized customers, Botero Wolff said.

For comparison purposes, management presented Nequi's quarterly results as if it had operated independently throughout the period. Those administrative figures showed third-quarter net income of COP 33 billion, or COP 41 billion excluding separation-related one-offs. Its reported standalone income statement included only one month of full operations.

Nequi's deposits ended the quarter at COP 6.9 trillion, up 24% year over year but down 9.5% from the prior quarter as balances normalized after a midyear service bonus. Its loan book grew 12% during the quarter to COP 2.5 trillion.

Mora said Nequi currently accounts for around 2% of Grupo Cibest's net income and could represent roughly 8% to 10% by 2030 if growth is strong, particularly in lending. The group is not considering an initial public offering for Nequi in the short term, he said, although the structure leaves strategic alternatives open.

What awaits the Colombian economy?

Chief Economist Laura Clavijo forecast Colombian economic growth of 2.4% in 2027, down from an expected 2.6% in 2026. Investment and earthquake reconstruction should support activity, while tight financial conditions and fiscal adjustment restrain growth.

Clavijo expects inflation to peak at 7.3% in the first half of 2027 before easing to 5.5% by December. She said the policy rate could rise to 12.5% and remain there well into 2027, with only modest cuts expected in the fourth quarter. The group's baseline forecast calls for a central government deficit of 7.9% of GDP in 2027, compared with 7.2% in 2026.

Grupo Cibest is a financial holding company providing consumer and commercial banking, payments, leasing, trust and investment services, and digital financial products. It operates primarily in Colombia, with a Central American presence including Banco Agrícola in El Salvador and Banistmo in Panama. The numbers are good; the macroeconomy is not cooperating.