Hapag-Lloyd Lifts 2026 Outlook as Q3 EBITDA Nearly Doubles to $1.7 Billion

By Tom Whitfield

Hapag-Lloyd raised its full-year earnings outlook after third-quarter EBITDA nearly doubled to $1.7 billion, with group revenue climbing 26% year over year to $6.9 billion. The German container line now guides to EBITDA of $4.6 billion to $5 billion and EBIT of $2 billion to $2.4 billion for the year. A strong quarter, certainly. Whether the drivers behind it persist is a separate question, and management itself did not claim they would.

What drove the third-quarter numbers?

CFO Mark Frese reported group EBIT of $1.1 billion, up from $228 million a year earlier, and group profit of $1 billion. In liner shipping, revenue rose 25% to $6.7 billion. The average freight rate reached $1,808 per twenty-foot equivalent unit — up 28% year over year and 23% sequentially.

Frese cited robust demand, particularly on transpacific trade, constrained vessel capacity and higher fuel surcharges. Transport volumes held broadly stable at 3.4 million TEU, and capacity utilization on the dominant East-West legs exceeded 98%. Rates carried the quarter, not volume.

Nine-month profit still sits below the prior-year level, dragged down by a weaker interest result and higher tax expenses. Frese nonetheless expects full-year group profit to finish clearly above last year's level. He did not quantify the gap.

What did the CEO say about the market?

CEO Rolf Habben Jansen attributed the revised forecast to sustained demand and stronger-than-expected freight rates. "Peak season, even until today, is in a way still there," he said, adding that a restocking cycle appears to be taking longer than anticipated.

He acknowledged the limits of Hapag-Lloyd's position. Capacity is roughly unchanged from a year earlier, which restricts its ability to match larger competitors' volume growth. Its relatively small transpacific presence and larger Atlantic exposure weighed on performance against peers: transpacific rates rose sharply while the Atlantic market stayed soft. That admission matters — the rate uplift rewarded rivals more than Hapag-Lloyd.

What changes with the Suez return?

More than half of the relevant capacity has already returned via the Suez route, and Habben Jansen expects operations to be close to normal by the end of the first quarter of 2027. He framed the gradual pace as deliberate: a slow shift avoids sending too much cargo to European and Mediterranean ports at once.

Completing the transition would free up a little more than 10 ships for deployment elsewhere, including a planned additional Gemini service to Europe. That is added capacity the market must absorb.

How much new capacity is coming?

Hapag-Lloyd expects about 5% more vessel capacity in 2027 from new ships, both time-chartered and owned, and expects to grow at least in line with the market next year. The industry order book stands at 44% of existing capacity — substantial, in the CEO's words — though 2027 deliveries are not excessive in his view.

He was cautiously optimistic the market would stay fairly balanced next year. Then came the caveat: supply growth will likely outpace demand growth in 2028 and 2029. Scrapping and idling older vessels could offset some of that pressure, he said. "Could" is doing notable work in that sentence.

Where does the ZIM deal stand?

Hapag-Lloyd expects to close its proposed ZIM acquisition in the first quarter of 2027, most likely in the second half of the quarter, subject to outstanding approvals. The process for transferring the golden share to FIMI was halted in October; the company plans to resubmit its application after addressing points raised by the Israeli government.

Habben Jansen called closing the deal the company's "plan A" and said he remained confident in it. If the deal fails, Hapag-Lloyd would consider an alternative. He did not name one.

What about terminals and cash?

The terminals and infrastructure segment lifted third-quarter throughput 10% to 3.9 million TEU. Revenue rose 51% to $197 million, driven primarily by consolidation of the J M Baxi container terminal business and higher throughput. Segment EBITDA came in at $56 million and EBIT at $34 million — solid, but small beside the liner business.

For the first nine months, Hapag-Lloyd generated $2.6 billion in operating cash flow and $2.5 billion in free cash flow. It ended September with $4.4 billion in cash against $1.7 billion in net debt.

What costs will not reverse?

Congestion, the company's Middle East land bridge and equipment stranded in the region are all adding costs, the CEO said. Some pressure could ease if fuel prices and congestion normalize. Higher labor, port and canal costs, however, are unlikely to be fully reversed.

The balance sheet funds the outlook; the rate cycle, not management, decides whether it holds.