Intuitive Machines Beats Q3 Estimates, Backlog Hits $1.9 Billion

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) reported a third-quarter loss of $0.02 per share on Thursday, beating analysts' consensus estimate of a $0.10 loss by $0.08. Revenue of $269.35 million exceeded expectations of $245.90 million, and the stock rose $1.24 to close the session at $13.42.

The quarter delivered records across revenue, profitability, cash flow and backlog. Revenue of $269 million grew 31% sequentially, the company produced positive adjusted EBITDA (a profitability measure excluding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $8 million, and free cash flow reached a record $33 million. Backlog climbed to $1.9 billion, supported by more than $450 million in new bookings and acquired backlog.

What does the guidance change?

Management refined its 2026 revenue outlook to $920 million–$950 million, citing the timing of contract modifications and awards, while maintaining expectations for positive full-year adjusted EBITDA. The guidance sits broadly in line with current consensus estimates.

On conversion timing, management expects 13%–15% of September backlog to convert to revenue in Q4 and 40%–45% in 2027. Production-readiness investments are intended to improve the company's ability to turn backlog into deliveries and revenue.

Where do the margins stand?

Gross margin rose to 26%, but the figure included approximately $19 million in favorable one-time program adjustments. The company also recorded a $34 million operating loss for the quarter. SG&A expenses contained a $9.5 million reserve tied to HughesNet's bankruptcy.

What is driving diversification?

Management highlighted a more diversified business across civil, commercial and defense markets, including new satellite awards and expanded ground-network capabilities following the Goonhilly and COMSAT acquisition. The company also recently landed a NASA lunar contract with a potential scope of up to $15 billion, a long-term opportunity whose full value is not guaranteed.

On the lunar communications side, Intuitive Machines plans to launch its first Altus satellite with the IM-3 mission, targeted for March–April 2027, followed by four more launches in 2028. Timing depends on completing testing and commissioning. Management views NASA's 10-year CLPS 2 program (Commercial Lunar Payload Services, the agency's framework for contracting private Moon deliveries) as a longer-term growth driver, though task orders are expected to begin only in 2027 and future service revenue has not yet been quantified.

How did the stock and insiders react?

Trading volume reached 23,140,043 shares on Thursday, roughly double the average of 11,544,003. The company has a market cap of $3.07 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -14.16 and a beta (a measure of stock volatility relative to the market) of 1.91. The 50-day moving average stands at $12.98, while the 200-day moving average is $19.33. Shares have traded between a one-year low of $7.78 and a one-year high of $46.75.

Insider activity included two disclosed sales. Steven Vontur sold 3,050 shares on August 27 at an average price of $16.13, totaling $49,196.50, leaving him with 113,997 shares valued at $1,838,771.61 — a 2.61% reduction in his position. The sale covered tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. SVP Timothy Crain, II sold 100,000 shares on September 18 at an average of $13.98, for a total of $1,398,000, under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (a schedule set in advance to avoid insider-trading concerns). He retained 351,279 shares valued at $4,910,880.42, a 22.16% decrease in his ownership. Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold 391,263 shares worth $6,077,802. Insiders still own 54.10% of the stock.

What are analysts saying?

Research firms remain divided:

• Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "sell (d-)" rating on October 15.
• Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an "overweight" rating on September 21.
• Zacks Research upgraded the stock from "strong sell" to "hold" on Tuesday.
• Canaccord Genuity cut its target price from $41.00 to $39.00 and set a "buy" rating on August 18.
• B. Riley Financial reduced its price target from $43.00 to $34.00 and set a "buy" rating on November 4.

Seven analysts rate the stock a Buy, one a Hold and two a Sell. The consensus rating is "Moderate Buy" with a consensus target price of $29.75, according to MarketBeat data — well above the current trading price, though below the stock's earlier highs.

Intuitive Machines, headquartered in Houston, Texas, develops and operates lunar landers and provides services supporting missions to the Moon and other destinations, including lunar payload delivery, spacecraft and mission operations, and communications and data services through its Nova-C lander under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program.