Krones Cuts 2026 Growth and 2028 Revenue Targets as Orders Slow

Krones lowered its 2026 currency-adjusted revenue growth forecast to 1% to 2%, down from 3% to 5%, and cut its 2028 revenue target to €6 billion to €6.2 billion from roughly €7 billion. The German packaging and bottling-equipment maker announced both reductions on its third-quarter earnings call, citing slower customer investment and longer decision cycles. For finance teams at industrial suppliers, the message is blunt: even solid order books no longer convert to revenue on the old timeline.

What did management say about the slowdown?

Chief Executive Officer Thomas Ricker said geopolitical uncertainty and rising costs for Krones and its customers were driving more cautious investment decisions. He insisted the company remained on a profitable growth path and kept its margin targets intact.

The numbers behind that caution tell a mixed story. Order intake rose 2.9% to €4.224 billion in the first nine months, and the order backlog grew about 3% to roughly €4.3 billion. The book-to-bill ratio (orders received divided by revenue billed) stood at 1.03, and Ricker said he expected it to stay above 1.0 for the full year. But some backlog orders will not generate revenue until the end of 2027 or later — a delay that reshapes cash-flow planning for anyone modeling this business.

Nine-month revenue came in at approximately €4.1 billion. On a currency-adjusted basis, revenue was €4.14 billion, up 0.8% from €4.108 billion a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue was €1.385 billion, against €1.381 billion in the prior-year quarter — essentially flat.

How did tariffs affect margins?

The nine-month EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, relative to revenue) was 11.1%. Chief Financial Officer Uta Anders said normalizing for tariff-related effects would put it at approximately 10.8%. The company maintained its full-year EBITDA margin forecast of 10.7% to 11.1%.

Anders detailed two tariff effects in the third quarter:

• Krones passed €20 million received from the U.S. government through to customers, cutting both revenue and material costs without touching the bottom line.
• It retained another €10 million tied to prior-year expenses, which lifted EBITDA.

Fourth-quarter margins will land below the nine-month level even excluding the tariff benefit, Anders said. Part of the decline stems from a one-time cost in the mid- to high-single-digit millions of euros for flexibility measures in Germany, including accruals for early retirement. She said the measures would not involve hundreds of people.

Where do the segments diverge?

The three divisions moved in different directions, and the forecasts now reflect that spread:

• Filling and Packaging Technology: currency-adjusted growth forecast cut to minus 1% to plus 1%. Nine-month EBITDA margin of 11.5%, or 11.2% normalized for tariffs.
• Process Technology: nine-month currency-adjusted revenue growth of 4.2%. Annual growth forecast of 0% to 5% and EBITDA margin forecast of 9% to 10% maintained.
• Intralogistics (warehouse and internal logistics systems): revenue up 10% currency-adjusted over nine months; full-year growth forecast raised to 10% to 15%. Its nine-month margin was 5.5%, well below the maintained 7.5% to 8.5% full-year target.

Anders said the Intralogistics outlook requires a strong fourth quarter, which would also carry the segment to its margin goal.

What about cash flow and the 2028 target?

Free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions was negative €5 million for the first nine months. Working capital rose €221 million from the end of December to €1.157 billion, and capital expenditure added to the pressure. Anders said both should reverse in the fourth quarter, noting that fourth-quarter free cash flow had averaged €190 million in prior years — a reference point, she cautioned, not a forecast. Krones holds €411 million in cash and €1.393 billion in liquidity reserves.

On the reduced 2028 sales target, Anders said expectations for injection molding and turnkey brewery projects had not developed as originally anticipated. The company narrowed its 2028 EBITDA margin target to 11% to 12%.

Anders said Krones expects growth in 2027, with a somewhat greater contribution toward 2028 as capacity in India ramps up. Ricker said the two Indian plants are on plan, but he does not expect a major impact from them in 2027 while the company trains employees and increases production. Reaching even the revised 2026 forecast, Anders noted, requires a strong fourth quarter driven by seasonal after-sales demand, work associated with closing customer sites, a larger Intralogistics contribution and the backlog production schedule — and the upper end of the range would be "much more difficult."