Nebius Beats Q3 Estimates by $1.02 EPS, Cuts 2026 Outlook

Nebius Group reported third-quarter earnings per share of $0.30 on Thursday, beating the analyst consensus of a $0.72 loss by $1.02. Revenue of $980.8 million came in well above the $907.2 million consensus, capping a quarter in which sales grew 571% year over year. Yet the stock fell 9.4% on Friday, closing at $116.59, as management trimmed its 2026 outlook and raised capital spending plans.

For finance teams watching the AI infrastructure buildout, the quarter tells a story of accelerating demand colliding with delivery risk. The numbers deserve a close read on both sides.

What drove the Q3 beat?

Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) reached $465.8 million, a 47.5% group margin. About $325 million of revenue was non-recurring, generated from an asset-light rollout — a point analysts flagged when assessing the quality of the beat. The company posted a net margin of 4.55% and a negative return on equity of 6.03%.

Contract economics strengthened on the demand side. Third-quarter deals closed above $25 million per megawatt, and prepayments on new agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capital expenditure. That shortened the stated payback period to 1.7 years. Management also cited multi-year enterprise deals and multi-billion-dollar agreements signed in the fourth quarter.

The practical takeaway: customers are now funding a meaningful share of Nebius's capacity expansion upfront, which changes the working-capital profile of the buildout.

Why did the stock fall despite the beat?

Two forward-looking numbers moved the market. Nebius lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to $3.0–$3.2 billion, from a prior range of $3.0–$3.4 billion, citing delays at third-party colocation sites (data centers operated by partners where Nebius leases capacity). Those delays shift some capacity and revenue into 2027. At the same time, the company raised expected 2026 capital expenditure to roughly $27 billion.

For 2027, management forecast revenue of $12–$13 billion — about four times the 2026 outlook — with pre-tax break-even expected in the fourth quarter of that year. Planned 2027 capital expenditure of $40–$45 billion is substantial, though the company expects prepayments and asset-backed financing to fund 75%–85% of it.

Investor concern centers on capital intensity and delivery risk. Analysts cut price targets, and broader uncertainty persists around demand from major cloud partners and support for the neocloud sector (smaller cloud providers offering rented AI computing power).

What do the balance-sheet metrics show?

The stock traded down $12.05 on Friday on volume of 41,077,564 shares — more than double its average of 18,798,592. Key metrics from the report:

• Market capitalization: $29.50 billion
• Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.82
• Quick ratio and current ratio: 4.03 each
• Beta (volatility relative to the market): 4.63
• 50-day moving average: $196.49; 200-day moving average: $178.58
• 52-week range: $73.52 to $299.86

The P/E ratio of -3,881.44 reflects the company's marginal profitability on a trailing basis. Liquidity metrics remain strong, with the quick ratio covering short-term obligations more than four times over.

What are insiders doing?

Insider selling has been notable. Director Wilson Boynton sold 7,260 shares on October 15 at an average price of $177.63, for a total of $1,289,593.80, reducing his position by 1.77%; he retains 403,522 shares valued at $71,677,612.86. The sale was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (a schedule set in advance to avoid insider-trading concerns).

Insider Andrey Korolenko sold 29,090 shares on October 1 at an average of $234.16, totaling $6,811,714.40 — a 5.28% reduction leaving 522,248 shares worth $122,289,591.68. Over the past ninety days, insiders bought 1,718 shares worth $280,207 and sold 103,527 shares worth $23,457,169.

How did analysts respond?

Ratings moved in both directions. BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform on September 24, raising its target from $260.00 to $399.00. Rosenblatt Securities restated a buy with a $304.00 target, while Truist Financial kept a buy but cut its target from $355.00 to $245.00.

On the cautious side, Piper Sandler lowered its target from $237.00 to $185.00 with a neutral rating on October 21, and Weiss Ratings downgraded from sell (d+) to sell (d) on October 30. Of covering analysts, two rate the stock Strong Buy, thirteen Buy, four Hold and two Sell — an average rating of Moderate Buy with a consensus price target of $226.00, per MarketBeat.com.

Nebius, based in Amsterdam, builds AI infrastructure including cloud computing and accelerated computing resources, alongside data services for AI, autonomous mobility and online education. The 2027 forecast now carries the weight of the investment case: management has committed to a fourfold revenue step-up and a fourth-quarter pre-tax break-even, funded largely by customer prepayments.

By Marcus Bennett