New York Times Beats Estimates by $0.03 as Digital Subscribers Hit 13.8 Million

By Sophie Lindqvist

The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) earned $0.68 per share in the third quarter, beating the $0.65 consensus by $0.03. Revenue rose 9.7 percent year over year to $768.54 million, narrowly ahead of the $767.21 million analysts expected. The stock fell anyway.

What drove the quarter?

Digital subscriptions carried the results. The company added 420,000 net digital subscribers, bringing the total to 13.8 million. Digital-only subscription revenue rose 14.6 percent, while average digital-only ARPU (average revenue per user) increased 1.4 percent on pricing step-ups.

Adjusted operating profit climbed 14 percent to roughly $150 million. Year-to-date free cash flow stood near $436 million, of which $276 million went back to shareholders. Last year's quarter produced $0.59 in EPS.

Advertising was the softer note. Total advertising revenue grew 7.8 percent, with digital advertising up 12 percent — slightly below guidance.

What did management say about AI and traffic?

Executives said big technology changes are driving less traffic to publishers and that The Times is not immune. They have not seen a measurable impact from AI agents on churn or cancellations so far, but they described the effects of agents and shifting consumer behavior as uncertain and under monitoring. A candid admission, in an industry not known for them.

For the fourth quarter, management guided to:

• Digital-only subscription revenue growth of 12–15 percent
• Total subscription revenue growth of 9–11 percent
• Total advertising growth in the mid-single digits
• Digital advertising growth in the high-single to low-double digits
• Adjusted operating cost growth moderating to 6–8 percent

The company plans continued investment in journalism and products, particularly video, alongside an emphasis on cost discipline. Return on equity came in at 22.64 percent, with a net margin of 13.19 percent.

Why did the stock fall despite the beat?

Shares traded down $1.48 on Wednesday to $65.64, on volume of 4,457,243 shares — nearly double the 2,243,137 average. The reported coverage identifies no specific reason for the decline, which may reflect factors beyond the headline results.

The valuation context is modest rather than exuberant. The market capitalization is $10.59 billion, with a PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 27.37, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.81 and a beta (volatility relative to the market) of 0.89. The stock has traded between $57.53 and $87.10 over twelve months, and sits below both its 50-day moving average of $67.37 and its 200-day average of $73.31.

What about the dividend and the analysts?

The company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.23 on October 22 to shareholders of record on October 7. That annualizes to $0.92, a yield of 1.4 percent, with a payout ratio (share of earnings paid as dividends) of 38.33 percent.

Analyst sentiment has cooled. Wall Street Zen cut the stock from buy to hold on August 8; Barclays lowered its price objective from $66.00 to $63.00 with an equal-weight rating on August 6; Zacks moved from strong-buy to hold the same day. New Street Research and UBS both set $82.00 targets on September 15.

The consensus, per MarketBeat data, sits at a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $82.70 — one strong buy, five buys and five holds. Before the results, analysts had flagged rising costs and print weakness as offsets to digital growth. Those risks remain, though the quarter's coverage does not quantify them. The verdict: a clean beat, a decent dividend, and a share price that declined to applaud.