Novig Hits $1.8 Billion Volume, Claims No. 3 Prediction Market Spot

Novig handled $1.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, up 80% from the prior 30-day period, claiming the number three spot among U.S.-regulated prediction markets barely three months after its August launch as a federally regulated exchange.

The figures come from the PM Pulse, a newsletter tracking prediction market volume using data from research firm Aldrin. Novig's total remains small next to Kalshi's $33.3 billion and Polymarket U.S.'s $6.3 billion, but it sits roughly $300 million ahead of fourth-place Crypto.com. The numbers exclude combos (multi-game parlays), which newsletter author Sam Schwartz says can inflate volume without producing proportionally more revenue for the exchange.

What does the growth run on?

Novig's ascent stands out for how little capital backs it. Founded in 2021, the company raised $30 million under a sweepstakes-based model that let it operate in certain states. A shift in the legal landscape pushed it to become a federally regulated prediction market this year, helping it close a $75 million Series B in February at a $500 million valuation. Novig is reportedly raising a new round at a $2 billion valuation, though the company declined to comment on future fundraises.

Its $105 million total funding is dwarfed by Kalshi's roughly $3.8 billion across 13 rounds, including two $1 billion rounds since May, according to Tracxn data. Polymarket has raised about $3.3 billion across eight rounds, including $1 billion from Intercontinental Exchange and another $1 billion led by 1789 Capital, the venture firm backed by Donald Trump Jr.

"There are very few companies I think outside of AI that have achieved our level of growth in the span of two months," Novig cofounder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky told Fortune.

The company has grown from 20 to 100 employees this year. A major driver: actress and part-owner Sydney Sweeney, who starred in the viral "Just Sports" ad campaign launched in September. In the 30 days after the campaign, first-time deposits rose 362% and mobile app downloads jumped 261% versus the prior 30 days, per internal company data. The app briefly hit No. 1 on the App Store's top free sports apps chart.

Why sports only?

Market share math explains the strategy. Kalshi holds roughly 64% of trading volume excluding combos over the past 30 days, with Polymarket's U.S. and DeFi arms holding about 23%. That leaves 13% for everyone else, with Novig capturing 3.5%—edging out Crypto.com and DraftKings' DKeX for third place.

Novig runs a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade against each other rather than the house, which it says delivers tighter prices and lower costs than traditional sportsbooks. "That's the main reason Novig saw growth early as a company—it's just such a natural draw to the professional and sophisticated users out there… they want to get the best odds possible," Schwartz said.

The company offers no politics or pop culture contracts and requires users to be 21 or older, unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, which admit 18-year-olds. That means Novig skips headline-grabbing spikes: Kalshi's election-contract trading reached $729 million on Election Day alone, and elections drove more than 70% of its volume growth that week excluding combos. Yet on most other days this year, Schwartz noted, elections made up less than half of 1% of Kalshi's daily volume. Sports, by contrast, drive more than 80% of prediction market trading and sit on the calendar nearly every day.

What are the limits?

The low-fee model appeals to sophisticated traders but not average retail bettors. "The majority of users out there are not price sensitive," Schwartz said, noting DraftKings, FanDuel, and Kalshi keep winning customers despite charging more.

A legal battle over sports-related prediction markets is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court next year. Kalshi has already shrunk from 50 states to 47 after bans in three states, including Nevada and Michigan. Schwartz put the odds of a ruling in June 2027 versus June 2028 at about a coin flip, and said some in the industry expect access could fall from 47 states to 35 or fewer, which "will significantly reduce" current and future volume, especially if larger states ban the platforms.

Fortinsky remains unbothered. "It's certainly not an existential risk to the company," he said. "We are set up to succeed and to crush the incumbents, no matter what the regulatory environment looks like. We have a stronger team, stronger product, and stronger velocity."