Ratings reshape the 2026 safest emerging-market bank ranking

National Bank of Kuwait rose five places to No. 13 in Global Finance’s 2026 Safest Emerging Markets Banks ranking after S&P upgraded both Kuwait’s sovereign credit and the lender in November 2025. That move frames a wider tension: ratings can strengthen a bank’s position while trade and energy shocks complicate its operating environment.

How are tariffs changing bank risk?

Across emerging markets, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy continues to redirect global trade, but exposure differs sharply by region and export mix. The same volatility that can weaken corporate clients and credit demand also raises demand for specialized trade and supply-chain financing, treasury management and foreign-exchange services.

Some emerging-market economies gain when U.S. importers shift sourcing away from more heavily tariffed countries. IMF research says trade diversion and import reallocation toward lower-cost alternatives can reduce tariff exposure by changing suppliers, relocating production and rerouting trade. The remedy carries costs: higher expenses, operational inefficiencies and greater supply-chain complexity.

Asia-Pacific rates show the spread: U.S. tariffs are estimated at 21% on China and 2% to 11% on other economies in the region. Two technology-heavy economies remain highly exposed: South Korea and Taiwan. Their dependence on technology exports is substantial, although exceptional demand for semiconductors and AI-related components has so far more than offset much of the tariff-related drag.

• South Korea: Overall exports rose 84% year over year to a record $121 billion as of September, according to government data. Semiconductor exports surged 263% to $60.3 billion.
• Taiwan: Over the same period, exports rose 61% to a record $87 billion, driven by global demand for advanced AI chips and technology products.

For the South Korean and Taiwanese banks in the ranking, export strength supports corporate activity across technology, manufacturing and capital investment. Tariff-related uncertainty persists. More broadly, the energy shock from the ongoing war with Iran is lifting inflation pressures, adding volatility and uncertainty for consumer and commercial banking clients.

Technology exports are cushioning tariff risk in Asia, but energy-driven inflation still leaves consumer and commercial clients exposed to volatility.

What drove Kuwait’s five-place rise?

Changes in sovereign ratings and bank regulatory developments in selected jurisdictions drove shifts in the 2026 ranking.

In November 2025, S&P upgraded Kuwait to AA- from A+, citing government progress on fiscal and economic reforms under Kuwait Vision 2035, the country’s national development strategy.

S&P also upgraded National Bank of Kuwait to A+ from A, citing its strong home-market franchise, 30% market share and success in geographic diversification. Approximately 25% of revenue comes from international sources. The bank climbed five places to No. 13.

Kuwait’s five-place rise reflects stronger sovereign and bank ratings, alongside a diversified revenue base beyond the home market.

How did Fitch change ratings in Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic and Qatar?

• Saudi Arabia: Fitch raised Saudi National Bank and Al Rajhi Bank to A from A- in December 2025. Fitch emphasized strong business profiles and credit metrics while increasing the government support ratings component for both. Saudi National Bank advanced seven places to No. 18; Al Rajhi moved up six spots to No. 20.
• Czech Republic: In May, Fitch upgraded Komercni Banka of the Czech Republic to A+ from A. Its revised global bank rating methodology gives greater credit to loss-absorbing debt buffers in jurisdictions with developed bank-resolution regimes. As a majority-owned subsidiary of Société Générale, it benefits from the group’s large resolution debt buffer. Its ranking climbed four places to No. 23.
• Qatar: Fitch initiated coverage of AlRayan Bank with an A rating, making the bank eligible for inclusion in the ranking at No. 38.

The ratings gains lift the cited positions, but tariff uncertainty, export swings and the Iran-linked energy shock leave the operating outlook unsettled.