Rumble Misses Q3 Estimates by $0.08 as Quake AI Drives Revenue Up 290%

Rumble reported a loss of $0.19 per share for the third quarter on Wednesday, missing analysts' consensus estimate of a $0.11 loss by $0.08. A year ago, the loss was $0.06 per share. Despite the wider shortfall, revenue grew 289.5% year over year to a record $96.6 million, and the stock closed the day up $0.66 at $5.76 on nearly double its usual volume.

The gap between the top line and the bottom line tells the whole story here: the business is scaling fast, but it's still burning cash.

What drove the record revenue?

Quake AI, the company's cloud-computing arm, contributed $68.2 million — more than 70% of total revenue. The segment ran roughly 22,000 GPUs at 85% utilization during the quarter. Management said most of its H100 (Nvidia's flagship AI chip) contracts renew by the end of Q1 2027, which they framed as an opening to negotiate higher rates and secure customer prepayments. They also plan to balance contract lengths to stay exposed to favorable supply-and-demand conditions.

For the first time as a public company, Rumble posted positive adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $4.4 million. The headline net loss still came in at $91.7 million, primarily from non-cash depreciation and amortization.

Where's the strain?

Not everything in the AI infrastructure buildout is going to plan. Financing conditions for data-center projects have tightened, and a portion of Rumble's planned 250 MW of capacity may slip beyond 2027. The company is discussing an alternative path with its customer for the Maysville project, but management called the approach early-stage and offered no project-specific timing or financing details.

The core video business, meanwhile, is moving in the right direction. Rumble Video revenue rose 15% year over year and turned gross-margin positive in Q3. Management expects video cost reductions to exceed 20% on a run-rate basis, with the savings emerging through 2027.

Why is Q4 guidance below Q3?

Rumble guided Q4 revenue to $88 million–$94 million, below the $96.6 million just reported. The reason: Q3 included more than $3 million of accelerated revenue from a barter arrangement that won't recur. Strip that out, management said, and Q3 revenue would have landed roughly at the top of prior guidance. The guidance range spans the $92.2 million analyst consensus, with the midpoint sitting slightly below it.

What are the other numbers?

The quarter's profitability metrics remain deeply negative: a net margin of negative 134.60% and a negative return on equity of 22.77%. The stock's technicals paint a mixed picture:

• Market capitalization: $2.86 billion; P/E ratio of -9.86; beta of 1.35
• 12-month range: $4.49 to $10.60
• 50-day moving average: $6.98; 200-day: $6.67 — the stock trades below both
• Balance sheet: quick ratio and current ratio both 2.12; debt-to-equity of 0.25

Options traders leaned bullish on the day: 25,642 call options traded, 182% above typical daily volume, though options activity alone doesn't confirm investor expectations.

How does Wall Street see it?

The analyst community is firmly negative. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "hold" to "sell" on August 15. Zacks Research cut it from "hold" to "strong sell" on October 12, and Weiss Ratings restated a "sell (D-)" rating on October 22. Lake Street Capital initiated coverage on October 6 with a "hold" and a $25.00 target price — far above the current $5.76. Per MarketBeat, one analyst rates the stock Hold and two rate it Sell, for an average rating of "Sell" and an average price target of $25.00.

Founded in 2013 by Chris Pavlovski, Rumble started as a video-sharing platform and has expanded into cloud computing through Rumble Cloud, targeting organizations seeking alternatives to larger providers. The Q3 numbers show the pivot is generating real revenue — but the widening per-share loss and tightening data-center financing mean the profitability question is now the one investors will press hardest.