Spire Global Misses by $0.29 EPS, but $75M in Weather Awards Reshape 2027

Spire Global missed third-quarter estimates by $0.29 per share. The satellite-data company reported a loss of $0.52 per share against a consensus call for a $(0.23) loss, per FiscalAI. Revenue came in at $18.00 million versus the $20.64 million analysts expected.

The profitability metrics stay ugly, and I'll give them to you straight. Return on equity (net income divided by shareholder equity) ran negative at 54.03%. The net margin (profit as a share of revenue) sat at negative 145.22%. Those numbers are the story's surface — the conference call underneath is where it gets interesting.

What softened the miss?

Spire booked roughly $75 million in new weather-data awards during the quarter. The two headline pieces:

• A $33.2 million radio-occultation task order (the technique of reading GPS signal bending through the atmosphere to infer temperature and humidity) from NOAA.
• A $28 million, two-year hyperspectral microwave-sounding contract for atmospheric profiling.

Together, the awards lift remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue not yet recognized) to $175 million and stretch revenue visibility across multiple years. That backlog matters more for a company this size than a single quarter's EPS gap.

Is the core business actually improving?

Yes, and by wide margins. Core revenue grew 77% year over year and nearly 10% sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margin (a profitability measure excluding items like stock compensation) recovered to 49% from 38% in the second quarter. The adjusted EBITDA loss (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for one-offs) narrowed to $8.6 million.

Cash discipline improved even faster. Operating cash use fell to about $5 million from $23.4 million in Q2. Spire ended the quarter with $78 million in cash and marketable securities and no debt, and management said it doesn't expect to raise capital for its current plans — with further cash-usage improvement expected in Q4.

What about guidance?

Here the picture splits. Spire trimmed the top end of its 2026 revenue outlook, cutting the range to $75 million–$80 million from $75 million–$85 million. The fourth-quarter range is $23 million–$28 million, and hitting the high end depends on a deal whose timing management called uncertain.

The 2027 view is the more aggressive document. Preliminary guidance of $96 million–$106 million implies 30% growth at the midpoint, with about 78% of that midpoint revenue already under contract. Management expects positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year and is targeting operating cash-flow breakeven during one quarter of 2027. Takeaway: the company is trading a haircut on 2026 for a contracted, cash-generative 2027 story.

How did the market and insiders react?

The stock slid $0.11, or 1.1%, to $9.35 in midday Tuesday trading, on volume of 418,576 shares versus a 1,047,057 average. Context for the tape: a 52-week range of $6.60 to $25.93, a 50-day moving average of $10.50, a 200-day average of $13.66, and a market cap of $365.89 million. The trailing PE reads -3.50, with a beta (sensitivity to market moves) of 3.19.

Insider selling was mechanical, per the SEC filings. Director Stephen Messer sold 17,986 shares on August 24 at an average $14.06, totaling $252,883.16 and cutting his stake 17.69% to 83,667 shares. CEO Theresa Condor sold 22,502 shares on August 20 at $14.09 average, worth $317,053.18 — a 2.32% reduction, made to cover tax withholding on vesting equity awards. Insiders sold 75,301 shares worth $1,005,333 over the past quarter and still own 13.04% of the company.

Where do analysts stand?

The desk view is mixed but tilts positive. Alliance Global Partners upgraded to "buy" on October 13 with a $15.00 target; Benchmark reiterated "buy" on August 3. On the cautious side, Weiss Ratings cut to "sell (d)" on August 27 and Wall Street Zen moved from "strong sell" to "sell" on August 15. Five analysts rate it Buy, one Sell, for a consensus "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $17.90, per MarketBeat.com.

For a company that builds small-satellite constellations delivering weather, maritime and aviation data, the quarter's arithmetic is simple: a big miss on paper, a much stronger balance between contracts and cash.