Synchrony Charts Multiple Routes to Double-Digit EPS Growth in 2027

Synchrony Financial expects maturing loans, revenue growth, operating leverage and capital returns to carry it to double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2027, Chief Financial Officer Brian Wenzel told a KBW conference. There is no single lever, as he put it. "There is not a single lever," Wenzel said of the path to the target.

Wenzel does not currently expect a U.S. recession in 2027, though he conceded the outlook could change before Synchrony discusses its plans in January. He anticipates pressure from rising charge-offs (debt written off as uncollectable), but said the company's economic arrangements with retail partners should offset that headwind.

What did October's credit data show?

Synchrony's newly released October credit results came in line with seasonal patterns, Wenzel said. He offered one technical caveat: net charge-offs should be adjusted for a 25-cycle period, against a more typical 28 cycles.

He credited consumer resilience partly to wage growth and a labor market that remains tight. Affordability pressures, however, are biting some middle-income consumers. Synchrony has not seen holiday shopping pulled forward into October, which suggests consumers may be waiting for promotions.

"We are optimistic," Wenzel said of the holiday sales trajectory. He nevertheless expects a more promotional season, given sales trends to that point. Restraint is not the same as cheerleading.

Spending growth is occurring across generations and credit grades, he added. On a dollar basis, spending skews toward higher-end consumers, partly because Synchrony lends more restrictively than it did three years ago. Younger and non-prime consumers, however, are growing faster than prime and super-prime customers.

How goes the Walmart card?

Wenzel pronounced himself pleased with the OnePay Walmart credit card program after its first year of originations. He cited customer engagement with Walmart+ and the card's presence in the OnePay app and Walmart's digital properties.

The next phase is getting the product into Walmart's front-end checkout, where it could reach more customers. That step depends on Walmart's technology priorities; retailers are reluctant to touch point-of-sale systems heading into the holiday season. Wenzel offered no timeline. Anyone expecting a Christmas miracle at the register should adjust expectations accordingly.

Synchrony continues to pursue partnerships with companies seeking to engage loyal customers, while declining programs aimed chiefly at monetizing an asset. Some relationships take a year to develop.

Where does AI fit in?

Synchrony is working to keep its products and merchant partners visible as artificial intelligence reshapes how consumers discover products and choose payment methods. It is also working with financial-services partners, AI companies and browsers on transaction authentication and consumer trust.

Internally, AI has helped technology teams deliver features faster and cut the time needed for tasks such as credit forecasting. Synchrony is beginning to consider how to reorganize work around that freed capacity, with benefits potentially visible in 2027 and into 2028.

Revenue from agentic commerce (AI-driven systems transacting on consumers' behalf) is likely a couple of years away, Wenzel said. The investment, naturally, is due now.

On newer private-label competitors, Wenzel credited them with agile platforms that deploy quickly. Synchrony differentiates itself through scale, customized offerings and the ability to use partner data in credit decisions. He has seen no impact on Synchrony's growth, partly because those rivals generally serve smaller programs.

What about capital and regulation?

Synchrony's first capital priority remains organic growth at attractive returns, followed by a steady dividend, Wenzel said. Excess capital can fund acquisitions or share repurchases, though he would not expect a large acquisition and said Synchrony remains disciplined on price.

On potential credit card interest-rate caps, Wenzel said Synchrony would engage with legislators to explain how the market works and discuss effects on consumers and the economy. He added that an effective Consumer Financial Protection Bureau operating within its mandate could be beneficial, compared with dealing with 50 state attorneys general. One regulator, it turns out, is the more manageable proposition.

Synchrony Financial, listed on the NYSE under SYF, provides credit products through partnerships with retailers, healthcare providers and other businesses. Its offerings span private-label and co-branded credit cards, installment loans, promotional financing, and consumer banking products including savings accounts and certificates of deposit. Its financing serves retail, home improvement, automotive, health and wellness, and digital commerce, primarily in the United States.