Tidewater Renewables Posts C$0.43 Loss, Raises 2026 EBITDA Outlook

Tidewater Renewables (TSE:LCFS) reported a loss of C$0.43 per share for the quarter on revenue of C$239.90 million, against a backdrop of record operating performance and a raised 2026 outlook. The filing, released Thursday, shows net margin of 0.09% and return on equity of 0.20%. Read together, the two figures frame the quarter: the plant works, the margins barely register.

What drove the quarter?

Adjusted EBITDA reached C$96.9 million in the third quarter, supported by renewable-diesel throughput at 114% of design capacity and stronger refinery margins. That is a record operating and financial performance by the company's own account, and management presented it as such on the conference call.

The balance sheet moved in step. Net debt fell C$139 million over the first nine months of the year, bringing leverage to 1.3x. Capital-spending guidance for 2026 was cut to C$15–20 million.

Why did guidance go up?

Tidewater raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to C$300–320 million. The raise rests on throughput and margin assumptions that management did not fully itemize; the company said only that record operations and firmer refinery margins support the range.

The forward promise carries conditions. If proposed Clean Fuel Regulations amendments are finalized as drafted, Tidewater estimates CAD 30–40 million of additional 2027 EBITDA from credits tied to 2026 production, plus CAD 40–50 million from expected 2027 production. The company itself flagged the dependency: those estimates rest on the final rules, credit prices and production assumptions. None of those three inputs is settled.

What does the Midstream offer change?

Tidewater Midstream plans to acquire the remaining Tidewater Renewables shares. The companies estimate CAD 30–40 million of NPV synergies and expect modest, positive accretion for Midstream shareholders in 2028. The deal remains subject to closing conditions and shareholder approvals — language that signals nothing is certain until votes are counted.

The sustainable aviation fuel project also slipped. Tidewater pushed its target for a final investment decision to the first half of 2027, citing regulatory uncertainty and the need to advance offtake agreements and financing. In plain words: the flagship growth option now waits on rules, contracts and money that do not yet exist.

How did the market and analysts respond?

The stock rose C$0.11, or 0.5%, to C$22.89 on Friday on volume of 14,334 shares, below the average of 22,118. The company carries a market capitalization of C$836.31 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of 94.05 and a beta of -1.57. The fifty-two week range runs from C$3.39 to C$25.80; the fifty-day simple moving average sits at C$21.34 and the 200-day at C$13.50. A current ratio of 1.13 against a quick ratio of 0.10 points to inventory-heavy working capital.

Three brokerages moved on the name:

• ATB Cormark Capital Markets raised its price target from C$19.00 to C$21.00 on October 23 and kept a "speculative buy" rating.
• Royal Bank of Canada upgraded from "sector perform" to "outperform" on August 14, lifting its target from C$12.50 to C$25.00.
• National Bank Financial raised its target from C$13.25 to C$22.75 on August 14 with an "outperform" rating.

MarketBeat.com records a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target of C$22.92 — within one cent of Friday's close.

Tidewater Renewables produces low-carbon fuels, including renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, converting feedstocks such as canola oil, soybean oil, used cooking oil, distillers corn oil and tallow.

A record quarter, a leaner balance sheet and a richer target — all of it now hostage to regulations, approvals and a merger vote.