Bloomin’ Brands beats revenue estimates as traffic stays weak

By Amara Osei

Bloomin’ Brands reported quarterly revenue of $944.35 million on Friday, beating the $925.23 million analyst consensus even as U.S. traffic fell 1.8%. Its adjusted diluted loss was $0.17 per share, $0.07 better than the $0.24 consensus loss but wider than the $0.03 loss a year earlier, FiscalAI reported.

On the company’s Friday earnings call, executives discussed Outback Steakhouse’s new peak-hour service model. Management said the approach was “receiving positive feedback.”

What did revenue and margins show?

Revenue rose 1.7% year over year. U.S. comparable sales increased 1.9% in Q3 as the average check rose 3.7%, while traffic declined 1.8%; management said the results were below the industry benchmark. The company reported a 28.95% return on equity and a 0.70% net margin.

Adjusted operating margin fell to 0.3% from 0.8%. Restaurant margin declined to 9.3%, pressured by food and labor inflation and turnaround investments. Checks rose. Traffic fell. Margins followed.

Takeaway: Higher checks, rather than more guests, drove the comparable-sales gain, while cost pressure narrowed profitability.

What does the updated guidance imply?

Management raised and narrowed FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $0.97–$1.02 from $0.90–$1.00, slightly above the $0.96 analyst consensus and tied to continued progress in Outback’s turnaround. For Q4 2026, the company guided to $0.07–$0.12 in EPS, below the $0.14 consensus.

Fourth-quarter comparable-sales guidance of 0%–1% partly reflected holiday-calendar shifts, lapping a prior-year promotion and delayed pricing actions. Weak traffic and margin costs weighed on sentiment despite the revenue beat, loss beat and higher annual outlook.

Takeaway: The annual target improved, but the holiday-quarter forecast leaves a visible gap to consensus.

What changed in the balance sheet?

Net debt declined year over year to about $677 million. Bloomin’ Brands refinanced its revolving credit facility under a new five-year agreement.

Takeaway: The company reduced net debt and secured a five-year revolving credit facility.

How is the Outback turnaround progressing?

Management reported improving Outback guest scores for a fifth consecutive quarter, including gains in service, value and intent to return. The company remained on track for about 85 Outback restaurant refreshes this year, with nearly all locations targeted for upgrades by the end of 2028.

Takeaway: Outback’s service metrics improved, while the company’s U.S. traffic remained weak.

What is the status of the 61 franchised restaurants?

An Outback franchisee, Out West, filed for bankruptcy and is selling 61 restaurants. Bloomin’ Brands entered a stalking-horse purchase agreement for the locations. Management said the restaurants continue operating normally, expects “no material Q4 impact” and plans to provide more detail after the process advances.

Takeaway: The bankruptcy process has not interrupted service at the 61 restaurants, and management expects no material fourth-quarter impact.

How do the market metrics and broker views stand?

NASDAQ: BLMN opened at $9.75 on Friday. The company’s quick ratio was 0.18, its current ratio 0.25 and its debt-to-equity ratio 1.62. Market capitalization stood at $834.79 million, with a P/E ratio of 11.89, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.55 and a beta of 1.30.

The 12-month low was $5.19 and the high $12.63; the 50-day moving average was $9.20 and the 200-day moving average $7.97.

Broker actions were mixed:

• Morgan Stanley raised its target from $8.00 to $12.00 on August 6 and kept an “equal weight” rating.
• Piper Sandler increased its target from $9.00 to $12.00 on August 10, retaining a “neutral” rating.
• Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” on October 24, without a stated target.
• Veritas Investment Research set a $13.00 target on September 29.
• Citigroup cut its target from $12.75 to $12.25 on October 23 and retained a “neutral” rating.

MarketBeat data showed 11 equities research analysts with a Hold rating, an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $11.10.

Takeaway: Broker targets moved mostly higher, while the published consensus rating stayed at Hold.

What does the company own?

Bloomin’ Brands owns, operates and franchises casual-dining and upscale restaurant concepts. Its principal brands include Outback Steakhouse, known for steaks and Australian-inspired dishes; Carrabba’s Italian Grill, serving Italian-American cuisine; Bonefish Grill, focused on seafood and contemporary dishes; and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar.

The restaurants offer dine-in, takeout, delivery and catering, with menus centered on full-service meals, specialty beverages and hospitality-oriented dining.

Takeaway: The group spans several full-service dining brands, but this quarter’s earnings story centers on Outback’s turnaround and cost pressure.