Endeavour Mining Guides to Lower Half of Gold Range After Mana Halt

By Marcus Bennett

Endeavour Mining (LON:EDV) will produce gold in the lower half of its full-year guidance range after suspending underground mining at its Mana operation on Oct. 28. The disruption cuts into a year that otherwise delivered record cash flow: adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $2.25 billion for the first nine months of 2026, up 38% year on year.

Nine-month production reached 820,000 ounces, and year-to-date free cash flow hit $1.02 billion, helped by higher gold prices. For finance teams tracking the name, the story splits into two halves — an operational setback at one mine and a balance sheet that keeps strengthening everywhere else.

What does the Mana suspension change?

Endeavour paused all underground mining at Mana, in Burkina Faso, after partial subsidence of an access ramp restricted surface access to the Dangouna and Aviera portals. Access to the Wona portal, which uses a different ramp, was unaffected.

Executive Vice President of Operations and ESG Djaria Traoré said the company expects Mana's full-year production to fall significantly below the low end of its guidance, with costs above the top end. Mana's 2027 output will be affected as well.

A geotechnical review identified a graphitic shear zone running through the affected area. Traoré said that structure, combined with the historic mining method used in shallower underground workings, may have contributed to the subsidence. The review is ongoing.

The remediation timeline is specific:

• Re-entry into Wona in the fourth quarter to stabilize shallow areas.
• Ore mining restart in the second quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals.
• Processing paused until the second quarter to allow stockpiles to build.

The company has received a mining permit for the Bana Camp open pit and plans grade-control work at the Maoula pit. Traoré said Endeavour is also looking to lift output at Lafigué and Sabodala-Massawa to offset part of Mana's shortfall.

Asked whether Mana remains a core asset, Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockerill said it had been strongly cash generative before the incident. He said remediation options are under review, with details expected alongside year-end results in January.

How did the third quarter perform?

Third-quarter production came in at 256,000 ounces, down from the preceding quarter on lower grades at several mines, wet-season conditions at Houndé and the Mana pause, Chief Financial Officer Guy Young said.

Adjusted EBITDA fell to $639 million as gold sales and realized prices declined. Operating cash flow still rose 28% to $407 million, and free cash flow jumped 76% to $261 million, helped by lower quarterly cash-tax payments. Young said the company has paid about 95% of expected full-year cash taxes and anticipates strong fourth-quarter free cash flow.

Liquidity at quarter-end stood at roughly $850 million in cash, a $263 million net cash position and $700 million available under an undrawn revolving credit facility (a committed credit line the company can draw at will).

Cockerill said Endeavour has returned $312 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks so far in 2026, exceeding its annual minimum commitment. He expects a record full-year return and does not expect the Mana disruption to affect the program, but declined to give a specific forecast.

What does the Assafou approval add?

Endeavour took a final investment decision on Assafou, targeting first gold in the first half of 2029. The capital envelope rose to $1.2 billion, citing higher land and crop compensation, additional contingencies and other risk-reduction measures.

Cockerill said roughly 60% of the increase relates to higher compensation rates following consultations with local government and communities. The resettlement plan should be finalized by year-end; mining-convention terms agreed in principle with the Minister of Mines still require government sign-off.

Spending phasing, per Cockerill: up to $100 million in 2026 (included in the envelope), up to $500 million in 2027 and about $600 million in 2028.

At Sabodala-Massawa, the first phase of an underground expansion remains on track for first ore by year-end. A board-approved second phase starts in early 2027, with commercial production targeted for early 2028. Together with Assafou, it underpins the group target of 1.5 million ounces of production by 2030.

What else came out of the call?

Traoré said employee Biermann Leon Bado died on Oct. 7 after being found unresponsive at Ity's processing plant. Following the investigation, Endeavour is expanding camera coverage, testing wearable technology for earlier incident detection and commissioning an independent review of operational risk and safety culture.

Resource updates for the Vindaloo Deeps discovery at Houndé and Kawsara at Sabodala-Massawa are due later this year. Cockerill said both discoveries could extend the lives of their mines and sit outside the 1.5 million-ounce target.