Gold Fields Targets Top of Guidance as Q3 Output Slips to 605,000 oz

Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) produced 605,000 attributable ounces of gold in the third quarter, a slight decline from the prior quarter, yet the miner expects to finish 2026 at the upper end of its production guidance. CEO Mike Fraser attributed the dip to lower grades mined at Tarkwa and Agnew, offset by improved output at Gruyere, St. Ives, South Deep and Cerro Corona.

Fraser described the quarter as largely in line with plan. Costs were broadly flat, he said, despite inflation and the weaker production. The verdict from the executive floor was unambiguous: performance, not deterioration.

What drives the fourth-quarter rebound?

Fraser expects a stronger close to the year as grades improve and several operations lift output. The evidence is operational, not aspirational:

• Gruyere: three new excavators are fully operational and productivity is improving.
• St. Ives: better performance from Invincible Underground and increased material movement.
• Agnew: higher-grade production expected from Kath and Redeemer.
• Tarkwa: the mine is moving into higher grades from Mantraim.
• Salares: production was lower in the quarter as planned, partly reflecting a scheduled shutdown; Circuit C was ramped up during the period.

Chief Operating Officer Francois Swanepoel said a ventilation blockage in a return airway at Agnew had been resolved, and the operation had returned to normal production levels.

Safety was almost clean. The company recorded no fatalities year to date, though it logged one serious injury at Windfall in July — its first of the year, Fraser said.

Where does the Windfall decision stand?

Gold Fields has received the Global Certificate of Authorisation for Windfall, along with key secondary permits including the mining lease, Fraser said. Site preparation continues, and the company expects to announce a final investment decision alongside its February 2027 results, when it also plans to publish a mineral reserve and resource update.

The decision could come earlier, Fraser said in response to an analyst's question, but would probably arrive no later than the end of February. Environmental requirements include an additional nitrate treatment plant and another water-holding pond; he does not expect those items to have a material impact on capital costs. Mining permits, it appears, now arrive with plumbing attached.

At Tarkwa, five mining leases expire in April 2027. Fraser said Gold Fields submitted a renewal application in November 2025 and a commercial proposal in July 2026, but has received neither feedback nor a committed timeframe from the government.

"We are still hopeful that we will be treated fairly and reasonably, and the terms of the renewal will enable us to continue to invest in this operation," Fraser said, adding that the company would consider all available options.

He also noted increased regulatory activity during the renewal process. Gold Fields is fully compliant and externally assured, he said, but it remains difficult to distinguish activity affecting the broader industry from scrutiny associated with Tarkwa's negotiations.

How much cash has gone back to shareholders?

CFO Alex Dall said the company realized a gold price just below $4,300 an ounce in the quarter, down 5% from the prior quarter. Net debt stood at $981 million at quarter-end, or $410 million excluding leases, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA (a leverage measure comparing borrowings to operating earnings) of 0.13 times.

The quarter-end figure reflected an interim dividend of about $900 million, $215 million of buybacks and $105 million of investments, Dall said. It also included approximately $120 million of capitalized leases relating to Gruyere and Granny Smith.

Under its additional shareholder returns program, Gold Fields had repurchased $854 million of shares through Nov. 3. Including a $253 million special dividend, the company has delivered about $1.1 billion of the $1.25 billion allocated to that program, Dall said. The company will continue to assess further returns and make buybacks opportunistically.

What pressures costs from here?

Asked about cost pressures, Fraser highlighted labor in Western Australia, fuel and diesel, and contractor costs for sustaining capital work. Dall added that stronger producer currencies and gold-price-linked royalties can also affect costs.

The arithmetic is precise. Across the portfolio, each $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil has roughly a $1 to $1.50 impact on all-in sustaining cost (the full cost of producing an ounce, including capital to maintain output) per ounce, Dall said.

On consolidation, Fraser said Gold Fields remains open to engagement with Northern Star after its nonbinding indicative proposal was rejected by Northern Star's board. Any transaction would need to fit Gold Fields' capital allocation approach, he said, and there is no certainty a deal will occur.

Who is Gold Fields?

Gold Fields Limited is a South Africa-based gold miner whose business spans exploration, development, extraction and processing of mineral resources, with gold as its primary product and copper produced at some operations. It runs mines and projects in Australia, Ghana, Peru, South Africa and Chile, covering the full mining cycle from deposit evaluation to ore processing. The company was formed in 1998 through the combination of Gold Fields of South Africa and Gencor's gold assets.