Energy Vault Guides to $600M-$700M Revenue and First Positive EBITDA in 2027

Energy Vault (NYSE:NRGV) guided to 2027 revenue of $600 million to $700 million — and its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), pegged at $40 million to $50 million. The outlook, laid out on the company's third-quarter earnings call, hinges on a fourth-quarter surge of roughly $250 million in revenue after a soft quarter.

Management narrowed its 2026 revenue outlook to $290 million to $310 million, the upper half of its previous range. Chairman and CEO Robert Piconi said the company expects about $250 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, driven by the timing of contracted deliveries and project milestones. Much of next year's revenue should come from already contracted build-and-transfer projects, while most projects Energy Vault plans to own and operate are expected online in 2028.

In short: the 2027 story is largely contracted, not speculative.

What happened to third-quarter numbers?

Revenue fell 61% year over year to $13.1 million. CFO Nitin Dahiya said the decline reflected the expected timing of shipments and project milestones, not lost business. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 rose 4% to $52 million.

The quarter's loss picture:

• GAAP net loss of $28.2 million, or $0.17 per share
• Adjusted net loss of $0.14 per share
• Adjusted EBITDA loss of $14.7 million, versus a $6 million loss a year earlier

Margins looked unusually strong, and a refund explains most of it. GAAP gross margin printed at 71% and adjusted gross margin at 81%, but both included a $4.3 million tariff refund. Strip that out, Dahiya said, and GAAP gross margin would have been 37.9% with adjusted gross margin at 48%. The company maintained its full-year GAAP gross margin forecast of 20% to 22%.

Costs climbed too. Adjusted operating expenses rose $9 million year over year to $25.2 million, mostly from project development and legal expenses tied to expanding the owned-and-operated platform, plus higher bonus accruals. Dahiya expects expense growth to slow next year.

How solid is the backlog behind 2027?

Backlog reached $2.3 billion as of Nov. 10, up about 147% from a year earlier. Piconi said roughly 35% to 40% should convert to revenue over the following 12 to 15 months. The split:

• About $825 million in build-and-transfer projects
• Approximately $1.5 billion in build-own-operate projects

Piconi said total backlog could approach $3 billion by year-end, with potential additions from both businesses. When an analyst estimated that backlog covered roughly 85% of the midpoint of 2027 guidance, Piconi called the estimate "roughly right" — a high percentage of the forecast is already covered.

An existing 1.25-gigawatt integrated power agreement will contribute an important portion of 2027 revenue, though less than half the total, Piconi said. Deliveries under that agreement started this quarter.

Is the balance sheet ready for the ramp?

Energy Vault ended the quarter with $236 million in total cash, including $55 million of restricted cash — an $88 million increase from the prior quarter. Corporate-level recourse debt fell $12 million sequentially to $221 million. The company expects to end 2026 with $170 million to $200 million in cash and further recourse-debt reduction. Dahiya said the year-end cash outlook assumes no additional parent-level capital raise, though project-level financing stays in the plan.

Project milestones are stacking up:

• The 1-gigawatt-hour Stoney Creek project in Australia received grid interconnection approval and is in project financing; Piconi expects it online in 2028
• The company completed its acquisition of Goshe, adding 2.3 gigawatts of U.S. battery-storage development projects, including 350 megawatts ready to build

Looking further out, Energy Vault estimates a potential annual EBITDA run rate above $200 million as it exits 2028, as controlled-portfolio projects reach commercial operation — and that figure excludes earnings from build-and-transfer and Prime Power Solutions.

A weak quarter, then, but one management framed as timing — with the backlog doing the talking.