CNH Guides FY 2026 EPS to $0.44–0.48, Just Above the $0.45 Consensus

CNH Industrial set fiscal-year 2026 earnings guidance at $0.44 to $0.48 per share on Monday, bracketing the analyst consensus of $0.45 with unusual precision. The market approved. The stock rose $1.25, or 10.8%, to $12.81, on volume of 25,429,099 shares — well above its average of 15,544,399.

The guidance caps a quarter in which the equipment maker beat profit expectations while missing on revenue. On November 9, CNH reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS, net income divided by shares outstanding) of $0.16, ahead of the $0.10 consensus by $0.06 and double the $0.08 posted a year earlier. Revenue told a duller story: $4.35 billion, below the $4.52 billion consensus and down 1.0% year on year. Return on equity stood at 6.78%, with a net margin (profit as a share of revenue) of 1.71%. Thin margins, thick reaction.

What is driving the re-rating?

Two catalysts sit behind Monday's enthusiasm. The first is the earnings beat itself, a $0.06 surprise against consensus. The second is strategic: CNH agreed to sell a 70% stake in its construction equipment business to Kobelco for $700 million, forming a joint venture. The deal supplies proceeds while sharpening the company's focus on agriculture — a rationale investors appeared to accept without argument.

The balance sheet carries a distinctive shape. CNH reports a debt-to-equity ratio (total debt divided by shareholder equity) of 3.33, alongside a strikingly liquid current ratio (current assets over current liabilities) of 12.23 and a quick ratio of 10.16. The market capitalization stands at $15.85 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.23 and a beta (sensitivity to market moves) of 1.23. The shares have traded between a 12-month low of $9.12 and a high of $14.46, against a 50-day moving average of $12.55 and a 200-day average of $11.35.

How do analysts read it?

The analyst community has spent the autumn revising upward, cautiously:

• Weiss Ratings raised CNH from "sell (d+)" to "hold (c-)" on October 2.
• Truist Financial lifted its price objective from $15.00 to $17.00 with a "buy" rating on October 5.
• Barclays raised its target from $12.00 to $14.00, rating the stock "overweight," on October 19.
• Citigroup increased its target from $12.00 to $13.00, with a "buy" rating, on August 4.
• Sanford C. Bernstein reaffirmed "market perform" on August 4.

The tally, per MarketBeat.com: seven buy ratings, six holds and one sell, producing an average rating of "hold" and a consensus price target of $13.39 — roughly 4.5% above Monday's close. Analysts forecast full-year EPS of $0.45, sitting almost exactly at the midpoint of the company's own range. Ambition, in this case, is calibrated to the median.

CNH manufactures agricultural equipment under Case IH, New Holland Agriculture and STEYR — tractors, combines, harvesters, sprayers and hay tools — plus construction machinery under CASE Construction Equipment and New Holland Construction. It also supplies parts, support and precision technology for fleet productivity. After Monday, the market's question is whether the agricultural core can deliver the margin the multiple now implies. The guidance says yes, narrowly. The revenue line has not yet signed the affidavit.