Triple Flag Posts 14% Revenue Growth and Maps a Path to 2030

Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM) grew third-quarter revenue 14% year over year to $107 million, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) up 22% to $94 million. The precious metals streaming and royalty company delivered 25,000 gold equivalent ounces, or GEOs, in the quarter and confirmed it will finish 2026 in the upper half of its production guidance. The portfolio, it appears, is doing the work so management can talk about capital allocation.

What did the quarter deliver?

Operating cash flow per share climbed 15% to $0.45 from $0.39 a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer Sheldon Vanderkooy said on the earnings call. The company expects full-year deliveries between 105,000 and 110,000 GEOs, within the top half of its increased 2026 guidance range of 100,000 to 110,000 GEOs, according to David Lee, vice president of investor relations.

The capital returns are proceeding on schedule, more or less:

• Triple Flag repurchased $20 million of shares in the third quarter, matching its second-quarter purchases.
• The company repaid $50 million on its revolving credit facility, ending the period with $185 million drawn, $20 million in cash and more than $1.1 billion in available liquidity.
• CFO Eban Bari said Triple Flag expects to repay the facility during 2027 at current metal prices.

Vanderkooy said the company sees value in its shares and expects to renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), the regulatory framework for Canadian share buybacks, in the ordinary course. Asked whether the pace of repurchases could change, he answered: "probably steady as she goes," while noting the company acts opportunistically when share price and underlying value diverge. Bari added that Triple Flag has increased its dividend every year since its IPO and treats a progressively growing payout as a core part of shareholder returns.

Why does Northparkes matter?

Chief Operating Officer James Dendle identified Northparkes as both the company's largest asset and its largest growth asset. The E48 sublevel cave (an underground mining method that collapses ore under its own weight) is ramping up through 2026 and 2027, while development has begun at the E22 block cave, where production is expected in 2030.

E22, a new decline and materials-handling upgrades should support underground mining capacity of 11 million tons a year, more than 50% above current levels, Dendle said. Minimum guaranteed deliveries from the gold-dominant E44 deposit begin in 2030 and should increase substantially from 2031 onward.

Operator Evolution is studying a mill expansion to 10-11 million tons annually, with the study due by mid-2027. Triple Flag's 2030 outlook of 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs assumes that processing capacity arrives, though some E22 material increases would come in the early 2030s. Vanderkooy said he is highly confident in the range and sees upside, but declined to name individual assets. Guidance for 2027 and a five-year view to 2031 arrive in February; he expects the 2031 figure to sit above the 2030 outlook.

What is in the deal pipeline?

Dendle highlighted two royalty interests near SSR Mining's Marigold complex in Nevada: a combined 3.35% net smelter return royalty (a percentage of revenue from sold ore) on Buffalo Valley and a 5% royalty on Converse. SSR's updated Marigold technical report includes a mine plan for Buffalo Valley, with first production expected in 2029. SSR has also agreed to acquire Roxmore Resources, whose flagship asset is Converse; first gold there is expected in 2033, at 150,000 to 170,000 ounces annually over more than 10 years.

At Prieska, Triple Flag holds the right, but not the obligation, to fund an $80 million stream. A decision requires a satisfactory feasibility study and a fully financed capital program; Dendle expects a decision in late 2027 and funding draws in 2028. Almost all transactions under review involve gold or silver, he added.

Vanderkooy said Triple Flag deployed $550 million over the past year and would consider larger deals while remaining prudent about leverage. He called debt of roughly two times EBITDA a "zone of safety" that could support sizable transactions. Based in Toronto, Triple Flag finances miners upfront in exchange for the right to buy future production at predetermined prices, and does not generally operate mines itself.