Venture Global lifts 2026 EBITDA outlook to $10.3 billion

Venture Global (NYSE:VG) raised its 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA outlook to $10 billion to $10.3 billion, up from a prior range of $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion. The upgrade follows a record quarter in which adjusted EBITDA climbed 69% to $2.6 billion from $1.5 billion a year earlier, at a 54% margin.

The company also lifted the low end of its expected full-year cargo range by nine cargoes. CEO Mike Sabel said the company produced 124 cargoes in the third quarter, at the high end of its expected range. Commissioning and rectification work at Plaquemines Phase 1 modestly affected production during the quarter, he said, though output had improved in the fourth quarter.

What drove the quarterly numbers?

Third-quarter revenue rose 43% to $4.8 billion from $3.3 billion a year earlier. CFO Jack Thayer attributed the increase to higher sales volumes and net LNG (liquefied natural gas) sales prices. Volumes rose to 466 trillion British thermal units from 373 trillion, while the net LNG sales price increased to $10.16 per million British thermal units from $8.92.

Income from operations climbed 74% to $2.3 billion. Net income attributable to common stockholders rose to $2.5 billion from $429 million, helped by higher volumes and prices plus a $1.4 billion non-cash gain on interest rate swaps (derivatives used to hedge borrowing costs). Thayer noted that higher volumes and better pricing did not bring commensurate cost increases.

The updated forecast assumes a liquefaction fee (the charge for converting gas to LNG) of $21 to $22 per million British thermal units for cargoes still to be sold in 2026. With more than 99% of expected cargoes contracted, Thayer said, a $1 change in the fixed liquefaction fee for the rest of the year would shift the forecast range by an estimated $20 million to $30 million.

The balance sheet carries ammunition. Venture Global ended the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and restricted cash and secured a new $3 billion revolving credit facility in September for general corporate purposes, including early costs of planned expansions.

How are the projects advancing?

Plaquemines Phase 1 began commercial operations on Oct. 31, within the original window specified in its contracts, Sabel said. The facility has loaded six cargoes under sales and purchase agreements since that milestone.

The company kept its 2027 outlook of 575 to 625 total cargoes, including 10 to 20 from CP2 in the third quarter. It moved the CP2 first-LNG target forward to July 2027. Sabel said Plaquemines produced 234 cargoes in its first 12 months and called that a baseline for CP2, where he sees room for a faster ramp-up.

Venture Global expects a final investment decision in early 2027 on a 10-million-ton-per-annum expansion at CP2, with financing expected soon. A decision on the first phase of a Plaquemines expansion is targeted around mid-2027. The company also plans the Cloud Connector pipeline from North Louisiana to support the Plaquemines expansion, an adjacent proposed AI utility site and enhanced production from existing phases.

Thayer said 2027 EBITDA guidance will come on the next quarterly call. He cautioned that results will reflect long-term contracts beginning at Plaquemines Phase 1, continued gas basis costs at the facility, and costs tied to CP2's startup and development of the AI utility business.

Will the AI utility plans find customers?

The company holds reservation agreements with GE Vernova, GE Grid Solutions and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands and associated grid equipment. It plans to order one power plant before year-end and another early next year.

Sabel said the proposed facilities would run in "island mode," separate from public electric and water utilities. The first 250 megawatts of capacity should come online in late 2028, with 5 gigawatts targeted by end-2031 and potential for 10 gigawatts by 2034 across sites in Cameron Parish and Plaquemines Parish.

The build-out remains contingent on customers. Venture Global has not yet signed data center agreements and will seek investment-grade counterparties for triple-net leases (leases where the tenant bears taxes, insurance and maintenance). Sabel said the company does not expect to need outside equity for current build plans and expects data center spending to coincide with rising cash generation from LNG.

Is long-term demand holding?

Sabel described demand for long-term LNG agreements as among the strongest the company has seen, particularly from Asian buyers. Venture Global announced a 1-million-ton-per-annum agreement with ConocoPhillips and a 0.5-million-ton-per-annum agreement with China Gas, and an existing customer recently added another 0.5 million tons per annum.

The company expects more 20-year agreements this year and next, while weighing additional five- to 10-year contracts. Sabel said shorter deals could capture higher prices while preserving a long average contract term.

On the market, he said limited Middle Eastern supply, European storage levels and power demand could keep prices volatile through the winter. If Middle Eastern volumes stay constrained, prices could rise further from already elevated levels.